Mortality
Updated: 22 December 2016
Infant and child mortality
Figure 1: Infant mortality by region, 1950/55 - 2010/15
Infant mortality by major regions
Chart by GKH. Note: The infant mortality is the probability of dying between birth and exact age 1. It is expressed as deaths per 1,000 live births. Data source: United Nations, WPP2015
Worldwide, there was a spectacular decline in infant mortality since the 1950. From its initial level of 142 deaths per 1,000 live births in the early 1950s, it declined to only 36 deaths per 1,000 in the 5-year period between 2010 and 2015.

In Asia the decline was even steeper: from about 159 deaths per 1,000 to only 31 deaths per 1,000 live births.

In Europe, the infant mortaliity was relatively high, shortly after World War II - around 72 deaths per 1,000 births. This was about double the level as in Northern America, where the infant mortality was only 31 in the early 1950s. However, since then, infant mortality in Europe declined to 5 deaths per 1,000 births in 2010/15 - slightly lower than even in Northern America where it was 6 per 1,000.

In Africa, where the initial level of infant mortality in the early 1950s was in the range of 187 deaths per 1,000 births it declined significantly to about 59 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2010/15. However, this level is still about ten times higher than in Europe.

Figure 2: Under-five mortality by region, 1950/55 - 2010/15
Under-five mortality by major regions
Chart by GKH. Note: The under-five mortality is the probability of dying between birth and exact age 5. It is expressed as deaths per 1,000 births. Data source: United Nations, WPP2015
There was also a spectacular decline in under-five mortality since the 1950 worldwide. From its initial level of 215 deaths under age five per 1,000 live births in the early 1950s, it declined to only 50 deaths per 1,000 in the 5-year period between 2010 and 2015.

In Asia the decline was from about 238 deaths per 1,000 to only 39 deaths under age five per 1,000 live births in 2010/15.

In Europe, the under-five mortality declined from around 94 in the early 1950s to 6 deaths per 1,000 births.

In Africa, the initial level of the under-five mortality in the early 1950s was in the range of 310 deaths per 1,000 births. In other words: More than 3 out of 10 children died before their fifth birthday. The under-five mortality has now declined significantly to about 90 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2010/15. However, this level is still about ten times higher than in Europe or Northern America.

Life expectancy at birth
Figure 1: Life expectancy at birth by major regions, 1950-2050
Life expectancy at birth by major regions
Chart by GKH. Note: Scale starts at age 40. Data source: United Nations, WPP2015
Due to the decline in infant and under-five mortality since the 1950, life expectancy at birth increased in all major regions of the world.

Today, life expectancy at birth is at abount 65 years in Northern America, but only 52.5 years in Africa. The world average in life expectancy at birth is currently at about 60 years.

The most spectacular decline of (infant and child) mortality was estimated for Asia, where the life expectancy at birth, as a consequence, increased from about 43 years in the early 1950s to almost 60 years in the 2010-2015 period.

Please also note the temporary increase in AIDS-related mortality in Africa, which lead to a significant decline in the life-expectancy at birth peaking in the period 2000-2005. Average life expectancy in Africa is still lower today, than it would have been without the HIV/AIDS epidemic.

Figure 2: Life expectancy at birth by country: Highest & lowest in 2010-2015
Life expectancy at birth by major regions
Chart by GKH. Data source: United Nations, WPP2015
The figure above displays the 25 countries with the highest and lowest estimated life expectancy at birth in the period 2010-2015.

Hong Kong, Japan and Italy were estimated to have the highest average life expectany at birth of between 68 and 69 years in the period 2010 to 2015.

The lowest life expectancy at birth in 2010 to 2015 was estimated for Lesotho and Swaziland (a little more than 40 years) and for Sierra Leone (about 45 years). These countries are still seriously affected by the HIV-AIDS epidemic.

With only one exception (Papua New Guinea) the 25 countries with the lowest life expectancy at birth in the period 2010 to 2015 are located in Africa.

Figure 3: Changes in life expectancy at birth: Highest & lowest change, 1950/55 - 2010/15
Change in life expectancy at birth: Top-20 countries
Chart by GKH. Data source: United Nations, WPP2015
The figure above displays the 20 countries with the highest and lowest change in life expectancy at birth between the period 1950-1955 and 2010-2015.

Three Asian countries should be pointed out in particular: The Republic of Korea, China and India. All three had a spectacular increase in average life expectancy between the early 1950s and today. South Korea's average life expectancy increased by almost 20 years; China's by more than 19 years and India's by almost 18 years.

Especially for the populous countries of India and China this decline in mortatlity is remarkable. It is mainly the result of a drastic reduction of infant and child mortality

As a consequence of the HIV/AIDS epidemic and an overall delay in development many countries in Africa had only a little decline in mortality as compared to the early 1950s. For Zimbabwe, Swaziland and Lesotho the United Nations estimated that the life expectancy had even declined and is 2 to more than 3 years lower today than in the early 1950s.

Quite remarkable is also the little increase of life expectancy in the Ukraine, Belarus and the Russian Federation. It is estimated that the average life expectancy of these populations is just 1.2 to 1.6 higher today than in the early 1950s.

Adult mortality
Figure 1: Life expectancy at age 65 by major regions, 1950-2050
Life expectancy at age 65 by major regions
Chart by GKH. Note: Y-Axis starts at 7.5 years. Data source: United Nations, WPP2015
Life expectany, however, has not only increased because of the deline in infant and child mortality. Instead, mortality has decline in all age groups. As a consequence, life expectancy at age 65 has increased in all major areas of the world.

On average, life expectancy at age 65 is projected to rise from 11.3 years in the early 1950 to 19.3 years in 2050.

In Asia, life expectancy at age 65 will almost double from 9.7 years in 1950/55 to 18.8 years in 2050 - thanks to countries such as Korea and China, where the decline of mortality was really spectacular.

Figure 2: Life expectancy at age 65 by major regions, 1950-2050
Life expectancy at age 65 by major regions
Chart by GKH. Data source: United Nations, WPP2015

Figure 3: Selected countries: Life expectancy at age 65, 1950-2050
Selected countries: Life expectancy at age 65
Chart by GKH. Data source: United Nations, WPP2015