Fertility
Updated: 21 April 2017
Total fertility: Africa, World, Europe
Total Fertility in the World, Africa and Europe
Chart by GKH. Data source: United Nations, WPP2015
The total fertility is the average number of children a hypothetical cohort of women would have at the end of their reproductive period if they were subject during their whole lives to the fertility rates of a given period and if they were not subject to mortality. It is expressed as children per woman.

Currently, the world population has a total fertility of about 2.5 children per woman. With this fertility the population will continue to increase significantly, because only about 2.1 children would be sufficient to replace one generation with the next generation. The figure above presents, in addition to the world average, the regions with the highest and the lowest fertility: Africa and Europe.

Africa, currently has an average total fertility of about 4.7 children per women - far more than would be necessary to replace a generation.

Europe, on the other hand, has a total fertility of around 1.6 - which is far below the level that would be necessary to replace one generation with the next.

Total fertility: Europe, Northern America
Total Fertility in Europe and Northern America
Chart by GKH. Data source: United Nations, WPP2015
In both Europe and Northern America total fertility is below the "reproductive level" of 2.1 children per women, which would be necessary replace one generation with the next.

However, since the early 1990s Northern America has a significantly higher total fertility than Europe. Social and economic problems, related to low fertility, such as population aging, are therefore less severe in Northern America than in Europe

Total fertility: Africa, Asia, Latin America / Caribbean
Total Fertility in Africa, Asia and Latin America
Chart by GKH. Data source: United Nations, WPP2015
Africa is in a unique position, when it comes to the trends in fertility: Contrary, to what demographers have observed for Asia and Latin America, fertility did not decline much in Africa. The continent still has an average total fertility of around 4.7 children per woman. This is far higher, than would be necessary to replace one generation with the next.

Consequently, Africa's population is still growing rapidly.

Total fertility:
Countries with TFR > 2.5, 2010-2015
Total fertility: High-fertility countries
Chart by GKH. Data source: United Nations, WPP2015
In these countries the average total fertility in the five-year period 2010-2015 was estimated to be higher than 2.5 children per woman. Most of these countries are in Africa.

For instance, Niger, Somalia, Mali, Chad, Angola, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Burundi have all an average total fertility of more than 6 children per women. There are also 16 African countries, where the total fertility is between 5 and 6 children per woman.

This total fertility is far higher than would be necessary to replace one generation with the next. It is causing the current explosive population growth in these regions.

Total fertility:
Countries with TFR < 2.1, 2010-2015
Total fertility: Low-fertility countries
Chart by GKH. Data source: United Nations, WPP2015
All of these countries have an average total fertility below the replacement level of 2.1. This means that in these countries people, on average, have fewer children than would be necessary to replace one generation with the next./*

There are 24 countries, where the average fertility is between 1.5 and 1.6 children per women; and there are even 17 countries, where the total fertility is between 1.1 and 1.4 children. This is far below the level necessary for reproduction.

All of the countries with extremely low, below-replacement, fertility are in Asia and Europe - including countries such as Japan, Germany, the Republic of Korea, Poland and Italy.

Note: /* For the technically inclined reader I would like to point out that the period-based measure of a TFR is only a rough indicator of reproductive success. A more accurate period measure would be the Net Reproduction Rate, which will be discussed later.

One could also use cohort-specific measures of fertility or adjust ferility rates using parity progression ratios in order to determine the "true" level of fertility in a population.

However, the bottom line is still the same: All the countries with a sustained average (period) fertility of below 1.5 children per women have, or will eventually have, serious demographic problems of population aging and decline.

Over the past decades researchers have repeatedly argued that extremely low period fertility would be only a temporary ("timing") effect that would disappear when family formation is completed. However, we still have a significant number of countries, where (period) fertility continues to be extremely low - over periods of up to 35 years.

Literature:
Imhoff, Evert van (2001): On the impossibility of inferring cohort fertility measures from period fertility measures. Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Demographic Research, Voume 5, Article 1, 23-64

Myrskylä, Mikko / Goldstein, Joshua R. / Cheng, Yen-Hsin Alice (2013): New Cohort Fertility Forecasts for the Developed World. Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Working Paper 2012-014, February 2012 (Revised April 2013)

Ortega, José Antonio / Kohler, Hans-Peter (2002): Measuring Low Fertility: Rethinking Demographic Methods. Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Working Paper 2002-001, January 2002

Bongaarts, John / Feeney, Griffith (1998): On the Quantum and Tempo of Fertility. In: Population and Development Review, Vol. 24, No. 2, 271-291

Andersson, Gunnar / Rønsen, Marit / Knudsen, Lisbeth B. / Lappegård, Trude / Neyer, Gerda / Skrede, Kari / Teschner, Kathrin / Vikat, Andres (2015): Cohort fertility patterns in the Nordic countries. In: Demographic Reseaearch, Vol. 20, Aricle 14, 313-352

World population by level of total fertility, 1950 to 2100
Median age by major regions
Chart by GKH. Data source: United Nations, WPP2010
This figure displays the number of people with a particular level of total fertility between 1950 and 2100 - based on estimated and projected total fertility rates from the 2010 Revision of the United Nations World Population Prospects.
In the early 1950 more than half of the world population had fertility rates above 5 children per woman.
Today, more than half of the world population already have fertility rates below 2.1 children per woman - as a result of the steep fertility decline in China.
Very soon, only a minority of people will have fertility rates of more than 3 children per woman - mostly countries in Africa and the arabic world.
European Union: Estimates of total fertility, 1960-2013
Median age by major regions
Chart by GKH. Data source: United Nations, WPP2015
For comparison, the table above presents the official estimates of total fertility from EUROSTAT for the countries of the European Union.

Overall, the EEUROSTAT estimate for the 28 European member countries is at 1.55 children per women for the year 2013.

This is very much in line with the estimate of the United Nations Population Division as published in the 2015 Revision of the World Population Prospects.

European Union: Total fertility and mean age at childbirth, 2001-2013
TFR and MAC
Chart by GKH. Data source: EUROSTAT
The average total fertility for the 28 countries of the European Union has hardly changed over the past 15 years and is still only slightly above 1.5 children per woman

Over the same period, mean age at childbirth has increased from 29.0 years in 2001 to 30.3 years in 2013.

Average fertility in Europe is far below the level that would be necessary to replace one generation with the next. As a consequence, Europe's population will age and (eventually) decline.

Massive net-immigration could compensate these effects of sub-replacement fertility to some extent - for the price of social, cultural and economic distruptions due to high numbers of non-european immigrants.

The most natural and appropriate demographic response to extremely low levels of fertility in Europe would be an increase in fertility to the level of about 2.1 children per woman.

This would eventually re-balance the relation between generations, significantly slow-down population aging and prevent long-term population decline.

Literature:
Billari, Francesco C. (2008): Lowest-Low Fertility in Europe: Exploring the Causes and Finding Some Surprises. The Japanese Journal of Population, Vol.6, No.1 (March 2008)

Goldstein, Joshua R. and Tomas Sobotka, Aiva Jasilioniene (2009): The End of 'Lowest-Low' Fertilit?. Max-Planck-Institut for Demographic Research, Working Paper WP 2009-029

Grant, Jonathan and Stijn Hoorens, Suja Sivadasan, Mirjam van het Loo, Julie DaVanzo, Lauren Hale, Shawna Gibson, William Butz (2004): Low Fertility and Population Ageing. Causes, Consequences, and Policy Options. RAND Europe, Prepared for the European Commission.

European countries: Total fertility (children per woman), 2013
Total fertility by country
Chart by GKH. Data source: EUROSTAT, 2016
This figure displays the latest EUROSTAT estimates of total fertility for all countries of the European Union. The estimates are for the year 2013 (or latest available).

The population in all of these countries has far fewer children than would be necessary to replace one generation with the next. Their total fertility is as low as 1.3 children per woman.

Since most of these European countries now have sub-replacement fertility for many decades, their population is ageing and they soon will beginn to decline - or have already started to decline.

European countries: Mean age of women at birth of first child. Difference to EU(28) average, 2013
Mean age of woman at birth of first child
Chart by GKH. Data source: EUROSTAT, 2016
The age of women at birth of their first child varies considerably among European countries:

In Italy, Switzerland and Spain women are between 1.5 and 2 years older at birth of their first child than on average in the 28 countries of the European Union.

In the Eastern European and Western Asian countries of Armenia, Moldova, Azerbaijan, Ukraine, Georgia and Belarus mean age of women at birth of first child ar at least 3.5 years younger than the EU average

Countries in Europe and Western Asia
Proportion of live births out of marriage, 2013
Proportion of live births out of marriage
Chart by GKH. Data source: EUROSTAT, 2016
Proportion of live births out of marriage - as compared to EU(28) average, 2013
Proportion of live births out of marriage
Chart by GKH. Data source: EUROSTAT, 2016
Among european countries we can find a large range of social diversity in reproduction:

In several countries, including Iceland, Bulgaria, Estonia, Slovenia, France and Norway, 50% of all births or more occur out of marrage.

But there are also countries, including Turkey, Greece, Armenia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and the FYR of Macedonia, where more than 85% of all births are within marriages.

Net Reproduction Rate (NRR)
The Net Reproductio Rate (NRR) is the average number of daughters that female members of a birth cohort would bear during their reproductive life span if they were subject throughout their lives to the observed age-specific fertility and mortality rates of the given time period. It is expressed as the number of daughters per woman.

A Net Reproduction Rate of 1 indicates that one generation is precisely replaced by the next generation. With a NRR of below 1 the population is (intrinsically) shrinking, with a NRR of more than 1 the population is growing.

Net Reproduction Rate by major regions, 1950-2050
Net Reproduction Rate by regions
Chart by GKH. Data source: UN WPP2015

Countries with the highest Net Reproduction Rate in 2010-2015
Countries with the highest Net Reproduction Rate
Chart by GKH. Data source: UN WPP2015

Countries with the lowest Net Reproduction Rate in 2010-2015
Countries with the highest Net Reproduction Rate
Chart by GKH. Data source: UN WPP2015

Belarus: Age-specific fertility rates, 1950-2020
Russian Federation: Age-specific fertility rates
The plot is based on the estimates from the 2015 World Population Prospects (http://unpopulation.org). It was produced by Kirill Andreev (http://kirillandreev.com)
This chart represents age-specific fertility rates of Belarus between 1950 and 2020 - based on the 2015 Revision of the World Population Prospects.

Blue colors represent low fertility; red colors represent high age-specific fertility. In addition, the figure shows the mean age at childbearing (MAC); as well as the Total Fertilit Rate (TFR).

One can easily see that fertility has droped significantly since the 1950s and has reached its lowes level in the 1995-2010 period. It is remarkable that the mean age at childbearing also reached its lowest level in the 1990-1995 period.

Since then, the age at childbearing has increased sigificantly, while the total fertility has only recovered moderately since about 2005.